Abstract
This study, based on the number of preschool caregiver during 2000 to 2004, adopted the five-year moving average to work out the transition probability of caregivers in each hierarchy, and constructed an absorbing Markov transition matrix to forecast the terms of seniority in each hierarchy and their annual supply. Besides, this study used the GM(1,1) model of grey theory to forecast the annual demand of caregivers, and used the cross analysis to investigate the manpower supply and demand of caregivers in Taiwan and obtained some important results. The authorities concerned may use these results as references to determine the manpower policy of caregivers in Taiwan.