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A System Dynamic Model for Demand Forecasting, Capacity Strategy and Financial Performances
Thesis

A System Dynamic Model for Demand Forecasting, Capacity Strategy and Financial Performances

Jimmy Liao
Masters, 國立清華大學, 高階經營管理碩士在職專班
2004

Abstract

晶圓代工產業 系統動態學 產能策略 股東權益報酬率 需求預測 Foundry Industry System Dynamics Capacity Strategy R.O.E. Demand Forecast
This study develops a system dynamics model for the IC foundry market. The proposed model simulates foundry “system” behaviour, and includes a demand sub-model, a supply or capacity sub-model, a technology sub-model, and a financial sub-model. The objective is to investigate the relationships among foundry strategies and financial performance, for example, R.O.E. (Return Of Equity). The proposed model is validated using different model structures by applying the past business data. Five scenarios are designed for strategy analysis. The relationships among foundry financial performance (R.O.E.) and the demand forecast, capacity strategy for fulfillment, capacity build up time lag and capacity unit cost are identified. According to the findings, the R.O.E. for foundry is also forecasted from 2004 to 2010 and discussed. The strategic implications of the scenario simulations are highlighted and summarized.

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