Abstract
To cross the chasm from early adopters to early majority is a significant issue in technology industries. The mobile telecom industry in Taiwan also faces the chasm, e.g., from 2G to 3G, and from 2G or 3G to WiMAX. This phenomenon drove us to question what key factors are to help new products cross the chasm. The aim of this research is to determine the key factors of user adoption and formulate a system dynamics model of the mobile telecom industry in Taiwan. We formulate a model by observing the case, the diffusion between 2G, 3G, and WiMAX in mobile telecom industry in Taiwan. After that, some scenarios of the diffusion in future are simulated. From the viewpoint of system dynamics, we can easily observe the structure of the industry and the results of some given scenarios for decisions and policies. Through simulating these scenarios, significant and sensitive factors that affect industry behaviors can be determined. The system dynamics model of the telecom industry in Taiwan can be used for projecting to the future new generation technology which also benefits decision makers. We propose that mobile telecom companies should improve the quality, invest in content and service industries, and launch WiMAX services as soon as possible. Mobile telecom companies should keep investing in enhancing customers’ satisfaction. The proposed model can be extended to get more precise forecasting in sales volume and profits in future research.