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Determination of the Constraint Matrix in Dynamic Factor Models using Likelihood Ratio Test
Thesis

Determination of the Constraint Matrix in Dynamic Factor Models using Likelihood Ratio Test

麥芳瑜
Masters, 國立清華大學, 統計學研究所
2013

Abstract

受限動態因子模型 EM 演算法 階層集群分析 概似比檢定 狀態空間模型 Constrained factor model EM algorithm hierarchical clustering likelihood ratio test state-space model
This thesis concerns about some modeling issues for a constrained factor model (Tsai and Tsay, 2010). This model was initially proposed for summarizing high-dimensional variables in a low-dimensional form with a pre-specified constrained structure. First, the static constrained factor model is extended to the dynamic one by incorporating temporal dependence in the common factors. Second, we employ the Expectation and Maximization algorithm to solve the maximum likelihood estimate for a dynamic constrained factor model. In addition, a sequential testing procedure based on likelihood ratio is proposed to determine a suitable dimension for common factors. Finally, we apply the singular value decomposition coupled with several clustering methods to determine the grouping structure among variables in the constraint matrix. Again, the number of clusters is determined via a sequential testing procedure based on likelihood ratio. The performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by a simulation study and an application with real data.

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