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Modelling and Testing Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets in USA, UK and China
Thesis

Modelling and Testing Spillovers in Oil and Financial Markets in USA, UK and China

Tian, Jia Rong
Masters, 國立清華大學, 計量財務金融學系
2016

Abstract

共動性外溢 原油 金融市場 現貨 期貨 對角BEKK 最優動態對沖 Co-volatility spillovers crude oil financial markets spot futures diagonal BEKK optimal dynamic hedging
The main purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.

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