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Re-evaluating the hedging role of Gold against Stock Investment Risk after the 2009 -2016 period
Thesis

Re-evaluating the hedging role of Gold against Stock Investment Risk after the 2009 -2016 period

Rivera Vasquez, Mario Paul
Masters, 國立清華大學, 國際專業管理碩士班
2016

Abstract

黃金價格 對沖 安全有風 金融危機 Gold price hedge safe have risk financial crisis
The economic and financial phenomena that has occurred worldwide during the 2008-2016 period produce a very volatile environment for global investors, which face many risks. One of the ways for investors to protect against financial risk in adverse time is investing in gold, which has been considered as a safe haven against stocks movements, meaning that its price moves inversely to stocks on financial turmoil periods. In this research, the most important Stock Indexes, Governmental Bonds and Currencies are analyzed altogether with gold spot price in order to find changes in their correlation patterns on order to assess the hedge properties of these assets was kept after the turmoil of the last decade. I run both recursive and rolling time series correlations of monthly aggregated returns of one of each of these assets against five stock indexes in developed markets in order to assess if their correlation was kept or modified after the crisis occurred in the United States, Eurozone, and China. The results show while of most the assets kept a similar correlation against the stock indexes, however, gold showed the most irregular pattern, especially with the continental European and Chinese stock indexes. As well, an econometric model using multiple linear regression was defined in order to determine the global fundamental drivers of the gold price. Keywords: Gold price, hedge, safe have, risk, financial crisis.

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