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Testing Co-Volatility Spillovers for Natural Gas Spot, Futures and ETF using Dynamic Conditional Covariances
Thesis

Testing Co-Volatility Spillovers for Natural Gas Spot, Futures and ETF using Dynamic Conditional Covariances

Wang, Yanghuiting
Masters, 國立清華大學, 財務金融碩士在職專班
2015

Abstract

能源 天然氣 現貨 期貨 股票指數型基金 聯合風險溢出 Diagonal BEKK模型 energy natural gas spot futures ETF covolatility spillovers diagonal BEKK
There is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging strategies can be used, especially with the rapid development of natural gas derivatives markets. These hedging instruments include natural gas futures and options, as well as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) prices that are related to natural gas stock prices. The volatility spillover effect is the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical, biological or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility of another physical, biological or financial asset. Investigating volatility spillovers within and across energy and financial markets is a crucial aspect of constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. The dissertation tests and calculates spillover effects among natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets using the multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK model. The data used include natural gas spot and futures returns data from two major international natural gas derivatives markets, namely NYMEX (USA) and ICE (UK), as well as ETF data of natural gas companies from the stock markets in the USA and UK. The empirical results show that there are significant spillover effects in natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets for both USA and UK. Such a result suggests that both natural gas futures and ETF products within and beyond the country might be considered when constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies for natural gas spot prices.

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