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Undecided Voters, Abstention and Spiral of Silence.
Thesis

Undecided Voters, Abstention and Spiral of Silence.

Chen, Chuan Hsiang
Masters, 國立清華大學, 通訊工程研究所
2014

Abstract

未決定的選民 棄票 沉默的螺旋 選舉 意見 undecided voters abstention spiral of silence political election opinion
In this paper, we analyze the psychology of undecided voters. We propose two models. Model 1 describes the phenomena of Spiral of Silence Theory. Model 2 describes the phenomena that a supporter of opinions with a high approval rate to become silent. We derive a system of nonlinear differential equations for Model 1 and Model 2. We also discuss the stability of the equilibrium points of the nonlinear systems. We propose an election prediction method based on the models. We predict the percentages of votes obtained by the candidates in twenty real election cases.

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