Abstract
Based on the information from Futures Industry Association (FIA), the scale of the commodity futures market in China exceeded the U.S. and let the former become the largest commodity futures market in the world at the end of 2010. However, the commodity index in China has not been well established such that it is not recognized as the reliable measure of general commodity price movement. Bodie and Rosansky (1980), Kaplan and Lummer (1998) and Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2006) pointed out that stocks and bonds are negatively correlated with commodity futures. As a result, a mixed portfolio of stocks and commodity futures are more efficient than a stand-alone stock portfolio. In addition, commodity is a real asset such that their price can reflect the variation of inflation. The positive correlation of commodity futures with inflation can also provide a good inflation hedge. We constructed the China Commodity Indexes that are designed to improve the efficiency of portfolio and provide a hedge against inflation. In order to maintain a long position of futures continuously, investing in futures requires that the investor roll his or her exposure. The futures return consists of rolling return and capital gain and we calculate the futures return including rolling return. S&P GSCI, DJ-UBS CI and TRJ/CRB are calculated by rolling the first nearby futures contracts monthly. However, the first nearby futures contract is not the highest volume of contract in the market of China’s commodity futures. We set a specific rolling method in the light of commodity trading characteristics and established the China Commodity Indexes that are focused on the efficiency of portfolio and inflation hedge.