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以動態產業系統探討全國產業經濟永續發展之策略
Thesis

以動態產業系統探討全國產業經濟永續發展之策略

林都
Masters, National Tsing Hua University
2011

Abstract

永續發展產業關聯表時間序列分析動態產業系統產業策略 sustainability developmentinput and output analysistime series analysisdynamic industrial systemindustrial strategies
As human beings living in the so-called “blue planet,” our main responsibility lies in protecting the earth and its resources. The exhaustion of petrochemical energy and the greenhouse effect have caused huge impacts on our lives. With these in mind, specifically their impact on the environment and the economy, this study discusses the coping strategies used in dealing with the industrial sustainability issues from a national viewpoint. Since the Nobel economist Wassily Leontief first proposed the input-output analysis to investigate the inter-relations of domestic industry sectors in 1936, many governments have conducted regular surveys to establish the industrial input-output tables for statistical purposes. Each table transforms business from every industry into quantitative input-output relations in a national-scaled economic system. In this study, we propose a Dynamic Industrial System (DIS), which combines the input-output analysis with the time series analysis. Furthermore, we consider different scenarios for energy conservation and carbon reduction to facilitate the strategy development of the industrial sectors. The case of the Taiwan economy is adopted to illustrate the proposed system. The proposed DIS is applied by classifying all domestic industries into nine sectors. Then, the time series analysis is conducted to predict the related input and output factors up to the year 2025. This includes the structure of supply and demand, industrial structure, the degree of industrial influence and sensitivity, and so on. Thus, we manage to observe the development trend of each focal industry sector included in this work. By considering the different scenarios and observing the changes in the industrial input, effect and development, proper industrial strategies are developed through which a government can attain a win-win situation in both the environment and the economy.

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