Abstract
People presume things or events to be occurred by forecasting on specified mathematical model with selected historical data. It’s a common sense that no mathematical model is perfect and its effect is limited. However, it’s important that based on the objective factors, we could predict the correlation of interaction between the specified business environment and the observed object by the sincere statistical calculation with the sufficient information. Moreover, we also could dig out the potential development trend. In case, it’s a kind of business strategy. It makes sense as people make and execute relative decisions (like capital expenditure investment) in this way. TSMC, a semiconductor dedicated foundry that always takes “integrity” as the prior principle, experiences operation oscillations during unstable global business cycles. Worked for the procurement division of TSMC, the researcher experiences the “pull-in，push-out” production equipments by several times. Judging the right time periods of pull in/push out production equipments by the scientific methodologies and further forecast the business cycle of Taiwan dedicated foundry(even Taiwan semiconductor) for investment scenarios is the core value and the insight of this research essay. This research essay is started by the research of Wu & Shen(1999) on Taiwan semiconductor industry development history, its research background refers to the basic studies of TSMC from Chiu(2008), Tsai(2005), Liu(2003), Lee(2003) and Wu(2006). About the studies of the correlation between business cycle and enterprise operating performance and corporate financial indices, the researcher refers to the solutions and analytic data from Yang(2002), Su(2001), Wang(2000) and Wang(1999). Also, the researcher refers to the conclusions and data intelligence of the correlation between corporate financial indices and business cycle from Yang(2003), Lee(2003), Huang(2002), Huang(2002), Lee(1999) and Tu(1999). Finally, the researcher introduces the analysis logic and experiences on both of economic recovery and expansion via the research results on TSMC capital expenditure investment policy scenario and production utilization from Liao(2005), Hsieh(2003), Liu(2003) and Chung(2005). By the above study results, the researcher offers the investment scenarios subject to the ideal production utilization and precisely forecasted business cycle of Taiwan semiconductor industry. Further, the researcher is eager to forecast the next capital investiment of Taiwan dedicated foundry (or semiconductor) industry on the point of view of one executive people. Also the researcher would like offer the better business cycle forecast methodology for TSMC managers.