Abstract
Solar power is a renewable energy that has a potential for development. The government of Taiwan has implemented a policy to subsidize individuals installing solar photovoltaic (PV) systems through financial assistance and buy-back assurance (e.g., the feed-in tariff scheme). Installing solar PV systems is considered economical because it enables people to make profit. In addition, using such system has environmental benefits because it reduces carbon emissions. This study aims to assist installers evaluate the profitability and potential risks of this long-term investment. A deterministic model called constraint optimal installation model (COIM) is primarily proposed to determine the optimal installation capacity under a given guaranteed price for a specific time period. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on parameters such that the most critical factors affecting profitability can be identified. Based on these factors, an extension to a robust optimization model, namely, Robust–COIM, has been developed to evaluate potential risks and uncertainties such that a robust investment will be provided. The robust model has been applied to an enterprise in Taiwan. Furthermore, two types of risk preference of decision makers are analyzed and compared to each other. Results have shown that the proposed model is able to recommend a robust installation capacity subject to the risk preference of a decision maker.