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平面電視的世代演進以生命週期分析
Thesis

平面電視的世代演進以生命週期分析

黃敬家
Masters, 國立清華大學, 科技管理研究所
2010

Abstract

平面電視 技術生命週期 羅吉斯成長模型 專利分析 flat panel TV technology life cycle logistic growth model patent analysis
Development of television to the present, has become one of an essential appliance inside the family. The TV was heavy and large machinery early, and now thin and multi-functional, and its one of the channels for people accessing to information. This study will utilize the U.S. patent office (United States Patent and Trademark Office, USPTO) patent documents to search of the patent indicators as estimates of the technology life cycle S curve trends Sources and further estimate the technology life cycle phases occurred at a time point. The four generations of television were present to explore by using the growth curve of the logistic growth model, and using the software Loglet Lab 2 to analysis of four generations of the technology life cycle of television to explore the evolution of television generation. The main conclusions of this study was to confirm the evolution of current TV generation, In the early the LCD TVs replace the CRT TVs which is now in late mature stage in the life cycle. And the LED-BL TVs’ penetration rate increased year after year in recent years, which is has come to maturity in life cycle, the price of the end products declining; and now the most popular 3D TV, is considered likely to be the next generation of television, although the current high prices of end products, but the technology was still growing in great strength of future growth; Finally, OLED technology seen as most likely to replace the LCD and its technology is also still growing in the front end, The evolution of television is no longer simply the pursuit of size and quality, the future of TV will be turned into a multi-functional and meet consumer demand for home appliances.

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