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影響中小企業信用風險因素之研究
Thesis

影響中小企業信用風險因素之研究

李允琦
Masters, 國立清華大學, 計量財務金融學系
2017

Abstract

違約機率 違約金額 Panel Logit迴歸模型 信用風險 中小企業 Probability of default default amount Panel Logit regression model credit risk SME
SMEs play an important role in Taiwan's economic development. However, the financial management system of SMEs is relatively imperfect, and it is easy to have problems with window dressing in financial statements. SMEs default or not are affected by various factors, and increase the credit risk of banks. The research data was taken from the application submitted to the credit guarantee organization from January 2013 to December 2017. Based on the data integrity, 79,288 enterprises were selected, and the small and medium-sized enterprises were the main research subjects. The research uses (1) Overall Economic factors (2) Basic information of the person in charge (3) Enterprise characteristics (4) Financial ratio and (5) Enterprise credit information, total of 21 variables, using panel logit regression analysis to determine the factors that cause SME loan default, and further Panel Linear regression is used to analyze the variables that affect the amount of default. The study obtained the following results, under the significant level of 5%, the variables that significantly affect whether there is a default include quota of loan, the business finance ratio, the gender of the person in charge, whether the person in charge has a spouse, the years of the person in charge of the company, the establishment period of the enterprise, GDP, the Xinyi house price index. The variables that significantly affect the amount of default are the business finance ratio, whether there is overseas investment, the gender of the person in charge, whether the person in charge has a spouse, the establishment period of the company, and the Xinyi House Price Index.

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