Abstract
In today’s e-age, companies have no choice but to move from being a local competitor to an aggressive competitor on global playing fields. Companies are finding it increasing difficult to operate their businesses due to the rapid change occurring in industry structures. In the fast changing e-age, uncertainty has proven to be the only certainty. Using effective methods to manage information and predict the future gives companies the ability to respond to change and understand future demand which in turn enables them to devise effective strategies to achieve steady growth and build a sustainable business. The small and medium mobile phone display industry is an important worldwide industry especially in Taiwan, Korea and Japan. It is an industry characterized by its constantly changing technology. Despite their manufacturing skill, Taiwanese companies often end up making low margin products because the technology lags behind their rivals. This paper discusses technology forecasting using small to medium mobile phone technology as an example. Technology forecasting methods such as MRI technology forecasting, combined monitoring, expert interviews and questionnaire methods are used to forecast technology trends for small and medium mobile phone displays three to five years in the future. After combining MPP methods to analyze small and medium mobile phone display markets using a logistic curve and estimating the size of the market, market demand for each mobile phone application product can be determined and used for a reference when companies are investing in target products. This paper’s analysis results showed that TFT will become the leading technology for small and medium displays in order to satisfy multimedia high and smart phone demands. CSTN will be the main technology used for low and medium price range mobile phones in emerging markets because low price is the driving force in these markets. The goal of technology forecasting is not obtaining extremely accurate results but understanding possible future development directions so companies can respond earlier to changes, escape red ocean and seek out their own blue ocean.