Abstract
AbstractIn the past, most kinds of the studies about the housing bubble were seldom considering whether the real estate market had taken place the structural changing. However, it has a significant influence in predicting house price. In order to set up a more specific system that can help to find the housing bubble effect, we use the Bai and Perron (1989, 2003) methodology to test for multiple structural breaks in the housing prices for US starting from January 1991 to October 2009. Besides, through the affecting of the house price we use the state-space model to examine the basic value of the real estate bubbling phenomenon. If there occurred structural changing, the factors of the house’s basic value would be varied, as well. As accounting for the price of the real estate, we must match with different phase of factors, so that we can make a correct investing decision.