Abstract
Due to the advantages of speedy acquisition in advanced technology and R&D schedule shortening,“Technology Transfer”is formed to be a common mode of technology acquisition in high-tech industry. According to the characters of highly technology-intensive and cost-competitive in DRAM industry, DRAM manufacturers adopt advanced process technology to reduce cost, which is the main competition method in DRAM industry. However, Taiwan DRAM manufacturers choose to rely on long-term technology introduction to keep existing in global DRAM market owing to insufficient capability in R&D. When they confront various technology transfer conditions, the evaluation result and decision making are strongly relevant to DRAM manufacturers’ prosperity. Therefore, the purpose of the research focuses on structuring effective decision making model for DRAM manufacturers. In this research, UNISON decision making framework is constructed to analyze four types of technology transfer under an uncertain market status for a DRAM corporation. The four types are foundry mode, technology licensing, capacity sharing and joint venture mode. First, decision tree is the value evaluation tool for measuring the expected monetary value of schemes. And, scenario analysis is used to point out the possible outcomes of schemes under different scenarios. Moreover, break-even analysis helps us to find out the breakeven point of schemes. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and tornado diagram show the impact extent of key influence for risk evaluation of decision making. Under this framework, the evidence shows “ joint venture mode” is the best option due to that not only are capital expenditures and profit shared by technology transfer supplier and recipient but also risk which may cause by uncertain factors is shared. Due to accountability sharing, less impact of price shocking in uncertain environments in this mode. The empirical results of the research reveal that the DRAM corporation accumulates a huge amount of debts by continuously depending on technology transfer. Moreover, the DRAM corporation has been encountering severe pressure of cash flow and the product price is getting lower in the case of long-term supply exceeds demand. Consequently, the financial crisis causes business operational difficulties.