Abstract
This study presents a novel mathematical model using Bayesian model for demand forecasting with non-homogenous Poisson process model. This study aims to construct a framework to minimize the overproduction and underproduction costs by using the time-dependent uncertainty of accumulative demand curve. Specific models werederived as the fundamentals of this approach. Furthermore, this study also proposed a method to evaluate demand forecasting using Bayesian experiment with non-homogenous Poisson process model.