摘要
In this paper, we draw upon the concepts of chaos theory to examine technological change as a pattern of punctuated equilibrium through the alternation of continuity and discontinuity across time. We advocate the application of the chaos mathematical technique of time-varying local Lyapunov exponents to estimate the rates of change, timing of technological transitions and the continuity-discontinuity loop time periods. To illustrate our framework of ideas, we investigated and compared the development of four technologies - semiconductor, display, software, and biotechnology - from 1976 to 2005, using time series patent data. Implications for theory, method, and practice are discussed. © 2011 The Authors. R&D Management © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.