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The effects of demographic structure change on housing prices
Journal article   Peer reviewed

The effects of demographic structure change on housing prices

Chien-Wen Peng and I-Chun Tsai
Taiwan Economic Review, Vol.45(1), pp.163-192
2017

Abstract

Cointegration test Dependency rate Fertility rate Panel data Economics Econometrics and Finance (all)
The dependency rate is an indicator of demographic structure that usually is used to measure the pressure on productive population. A high dependency ratio can cause serious problems for a country if a large proportion of a government's expenditure is on health, social security and education, which are most used by the youngest and the oldest in a population. Many previous studies have found that the dependency rate was the main determinant of household saving or wealth accumulation. This study tries further to clarify whether demographic changes, especially the dependency rate, affects housing prices. The empirical results reveal that house prices are cointegrated with the fertility rate and old dependency rate, respectively. In the long run, an increase in the fertility rate increases house prices. However, an increase in the old dependency rate reduces house prices. The expected demographic change in 2015 is an important signal of housing price change.

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