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我國住宅與服務業部門之電力需求預測模型準確度比較
Journal article

我國住宅與服務業部門之電力需求預測模型準確度比較

易樺 吳, 朝熙 黃, 庚轅 陳 and 子衙 劉
臺灣能源期刊, Vol.2(1), pp.1-14
2015

Abstract

電力需求預測;住宅部門;服務業部門;預測誤差比較;Power demand forecast;Residential sector;Service sector;Forecast error comparison;VAR;Factor model 經濟學

This paper adopts the factor model to forecast the power demand of the residential and service sectors, comparing its forecasting performance with the VAR model. The factor model uses the principle component analysis, generating factors from abundant information to represent the complicated data. We find that the factor model such as IMS, UN, and DMS outperforms the forecasting performance of the vector autoregressive model. As a result, the factor model has more advantage in forecasting the power demand of service and residential sectors than the VAR model.

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